According to the latest report released by Clarkson, new shipbuilding orders will maintain steady growth in 2025.
Global new shipbuilding orders maintained steady growth this year, with global shipowners investing over one trillion yuan in new ship orders in the first 11 months. The overall order volume remained at a relatively high historical level, and the order backlog climbed to a 15-year high. In this ordering cycle, Chinese shipbuilders continued to hold the top position in the global new shipbuilding market, further consolidating their leading advantage in mainstream ship types.
According to the latest report released by Clarkson, new shipbuilding orders will maintain steady growth in 2025. In the first 11 months, global shipowners ordered 1,627 new ships, totaling 116.8 million deadweight tons (44.99 million CGT), a 36% decrease (in CGT terms) compared to the exceptionally strong order surge in 2024, but still 17% higher than the average of the past 10 years. The growth rate of new shipbuilding orders accelerated significantly in the second half of the year, with orders 15% higher than in the first half, especially in the bulk carrier and oil tanker sectors.
New shipbuilding investment remains at historically high levels due to high ship prices and increased capital expenditures driven by green technology. In the first 11 months, total new ship orders reached US$146.7 billion (approximately RMB 1.03 trillion), a 30% year-on-year decrease, but still 56% higher than the 10-year average. Overall, new ship prices have slightly declined compared to last year. As of the end of November, the Clarkson New Shipbuilding Price Index stood at 84 points, a 3% year-on-year decrease, but still 25% higher than the 10-year average.
In November, global new ship orders totaled 152 vessels, comprising 17.2 million deadweight tons (5.1 million CGT). Container ships continued to lead the way, with 50 vessels totaling approximately 447,000 TEU, accounting for 40% of the total orders for the month in CGT terms. Meanwhile, the tanker sector was very active in November, with new orders totaling 47 vessels and 10.1 million deadweight tons, more than four times the average level for January-October. VLCCs, in particular, saw 24 new orders in November, the highest monthly record since December 2013 (28 vessels).
Looking at the first 11 months, the global container ship newbuilding market continued its "order boom," with 548 new orders totaling 4.3 million TEU from January to November, comparable to the record order levels for 2024. Orders for large container ships remained high, while feeder ship orders also continued to increase, reflecting shipping companies' plans to expand and upgrade their fleets. Cruise ship newbuilding orders were also near historical highs, with 22 vessels and approximately 79,000 berths ordered in the first 11 months, roughly twice the 10-year average.
On the other hand, new orders for tankers and bulk carriers began to recover after a slump at the beginning of the year. In the first 11 months, new orders for oil tankers reached 327 vessels totaling 34.7 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the order volume in the second half of the year was more than double that of the first half. New orders for bulk carriers totaled 281 vessels totaling 25.5 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45%, but the order volume in the second half of the year was about 50% higher than that of the first half. Meanwhile, new orders in the liquefied gas carrier sector were generally weak, with only 44 LNG carriers and 50 LPG carriers ordered in the first 11 months.
As for shipyard countries, Chinese shipbuilders continued to dominate the global new shipbuilding market, receiving orders for 1,067 vessels totaling 26.6 million CGT in the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 46%, with a market share of 59% in CGT terms, lower than the 71% target for 2024. During the same period, South Korean shipbuilders received orders for 223 vessels totaling 10 million CGT, a year-on-year increase of 2%, remaining stable, with a market share of 22%.
One factor contributing to the decline in orders for Chinese shipbuilders is the U.S. Section 301 plan announced in the first half of this year, targeting China's shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. This plan imposes additional port service fees on vessels owned or operated by Chinese companies, vessels built in China, and vessels registered in China. As a result, the share of orders received by Chinese shipbuilders fell to 55% in the first half of the year, but has since increased to 63% in the second half.
Clarkson points out that uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, regulations, and technology, as well as high newbuilding prices, continue to dampen overall ordering sentiment. Nevertheless, the global order backlog remains at the high level expected by the end of 2024, with a total of 6,368 vessels totaling 419.9 million deadweight tons (171 million CGT) as of early December, a 15-year high in CGT terms.
Among them, Chinese shipbuilders hold orders for 4,083 vessels totaling 287.4 million deadweight tons (DWT) and 104.6 million CGT, representing a market share of approximately 61% in CGT terms. Chinese shipbuilders lead in container ships, bulk carriers, and oil tankers. South Korean shipbuilders hold orders for 695 vessels totaling 76 million DWT and 35.3 million CGT, representing a market share of approximately 21%. South Korean shipbuilders hold an advantage in the liquefied gas carrier (LNG) sector.
Currently, driven by massive delivery plans and capacity expansion, primarily in China, global shipbuilding output is in an expansion phase. Clarkson predicts that global shipbuilding output will reach 43.5 million CGT in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%; and will further increase to 50.1 million CGT in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Preliminary forecasts indicate that total deliveries in 2027 will reach 54 million CGT, approaching the peak levels of the shipbuilding boom of the 2010s.
(Reprinted from Eworldship)
